From Economic Impossibility to Golden Opportunity: The Path Forward for the RV of the Iraqi Dinar
I tremendously enjoy engaging with my subscribers at GCR Real-Time News.
The questions raised and the discussions held around currency revaluations, particularly concerning Iraq’s dinar (IQD), provide for compelling conversation on the limitations of fiat currencies and the potential for a shift towards a gold-backed monetary system.
As countries assess and plan realistic strategies to combat today’s growing fiat economic and monetary uncertainties, the conversation about the nature of currency value, the impact of oil revenues, and the feasibility of significant currency revaluations serve as both informative and relevant.
Here’s the summary breakdown of a recent conversation thread on GCR Real-Time News.
The Iraqi Dinar RV Conundrum
At the heart of the debate is Iraq’s consideration of revaluing its currency, the IQD, potentially to $3.00 (or higher) against the U.S. dollar, a move that poses significant mathematical and economic challenges.
With an estimated 7 trillion (or more) IQD notes held outside of Iraq, a revaluation (RV) at such a rate would require an unfathomable $21 trillion ($3.00 x 7 Trillion IQD) fiat Dollars to fund the RV.
A sum far beyond Iraq’s current financial capacity, generated primarily through its oil trade revenues of around $100 billion per year at current oil prices. It would take Iraq centuries to pay for a $3.00 RV exchange rate at Iraq’s current and future production capacities. No Oil Contracts or economic development project investments scenario gets Iraq to $21 Trillion in the near or long term.
This stark reality highlights the inherent limitations of fiat currencies, which are not backed by physical commodities like gold but only by public confidence and a government’s declared ‘promises’.
The Gold-Backed Purchasing Power Solution
The potential solution lies in transitioning to a gold-backed currency system, a concept currently being explored by the BRICS nations as they seek to introduce an alternative to the fiat currency system dominated by Western economies.
A gold-backed currency promises enhanced stability and purchasing power, directly challenging the existing fiat system’s dominance.
If Iraq, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc., are accepted into BRICS, their currencies would participate in the new BRICS gold-backed common trade currency and financial system.
In other words, the IQD, VND, etc. would significantly gain purchasing power (exchange rate) against the Dollar, Euro, and other major fiat currencies.
So why can’t Iraq just peg the IQD to a high dollar exchange rate like Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain do?
Because unlike the other high-rate currencies in the region, Iraq has the unique problem of having over 7 trillion (or more) in IQD being held outside of Iraq by foreigners like you and me.
Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain do not have a fraction of their currencies being held by foreigners as does Iraq. This is why these other countries can maintain their high fiat exchange rate peg to the US Dollar. Iraq simply cannot repeg the fiat IQD value (purchasing power) with that many IQD held around the world.
The Ripple Effect of a Gold-Backed System
Should a gold-backed currency system come to fruition, the implications become financially significant, forcing Western economies to reconsider their fiat monetary policies and potentially launch their own gold-backed currencies in order to stop their old currencies from massive devaluation.
This shift could dramatically increase the purchasing power of currencies from Iraq and other countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Zimbabwe, making a revaluation of the IQD both mathematically and economically viable.
The key would be the relative devaluation of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar against new gold-backed currencies, fundamentally and forever altering the global economic landscape.
In other words, the increase in the IQD’s purchasing power (exchange rate) would originate from the depreciation of the US Dollar vs. the gold-backed IQD – not from the IQD suddenly gaining purchasing power out of thin air (because it can’t).
There are not enough oil contracts or native economic development value-generation within Iraq’s realistic capability that could support (pay for) a fiat IQD revaluation to $3.00+ against the current fiat dollar.
Basically, $21 Trillion dollars rivals the total GDP of the entire United States. Let that sink in…
The Re-denomination vs. Revaluation Debate
Iraq’s ongoing strategy to re-denominate the IQD, removing three zeros from its notes, illustrates the difference between re-denomination and revaluation.
While re-denomination is a superficial change affecting the currency’s appearance and public perception (confidence), revaluation alters the currency’s actual purchasing power.
The Iraqi Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the Central Bank of Iraq’s consideration of this strategy underscores the complexities of currency management and the pursuit of public confidence in the IQD.
The Global Context and the Future of Fiat Currencies
The discussion extends beyond Iraq, touching on the broader dynamics of the global financial system, the role of free-floating currencies, and the managed pegs that stabilize many oil-dependent economies.
The possibility of transitioning to a gold-backed system raises questions about the sustainability of fiat currencies and their future in a world looking for more stable and reliable monetary foundations.
As all of us in the RV/GCR community seek to freely and openly discuss these issues, the situation in Iraq serves as a critical point of analysis for the future of the global financial system as a whole.
Sidebar of topics discussed at GCR Real-Time News Telegram Channel:
- Estimated IQD Notes Held Abroad: 7 trillion IQD, as reported by Iraq’s Ministry of Finance.
- Hypothetical RV Rate: If Iraq revalues (RVs) the IQD to $3.00 against the U.S. dollar.
- Total Dollar Requirement for Hypothetical RV: $21 trillion (7 trillion IQD x $3.00).
- Iraq’s Annual Oil Revenue: Approximately $100 billion at current oil prices.
- Time Required to Cover RV Cost with Oil Revenue: Over 210 years, assuming 100% of Iraq’s annual oil revenue is dedicated to funding (paying for) the RV.
- Current Exchange Rate Perception Issue: If Iraq re-denominates by deleting 3 zeros from the currency, 1 IQD equals 1.310 per dollar, compared to the less favorable current rate of 1310 IQD per dollar. But the purchasing power of the IQD remains unchanged.
- Major Free-Floating Currencies: Dollar, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Russian Ruble, Indian Rupee, among others. These countries have highly diverse economies (their GDPs are not dependent on a single industry or service).
- Countries with Pegged Currencies: China, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Singapore, Hong Kong, Iraq, and many others emphasizing the prevalence of stable, managed currency pegs and floats among oil-dependent, or less diverse economies.
- Economic Dependency on Oil: The majority of GDP for many pegged/managed currency countries comes from oil revenues, highlighting the risk and volatility in oil markets if these countries utilized a free-floating currency exchange rate system.
The shift towards a gold-backed currency system could herald a new era in finance, challenging the status quo and offering a path toward greater economic stability and equity among nations.
The journey from fiat to gold-backed currencies is most certainly fraught with challenges and uncertainties, yet the potential rewards could redefine the essence of monetary value in the near future.
