And So It Begins…
The events in Saudi Arabia, particularly the establishment of a $7 billion local currency swap line with China and the probable shift away from the US Dollar, are significant in the context of the end of US dollar dominance and preparations for the approaching Global Currency Reset (GCR).
These events reflect a shifting global economic landscape where multiple currencies play a more prominent role, challenging the historical dominance of the US Dollar.
Saudi Arabia recently announced a groundbreaking $7 billion local currency swap line with China, sparking speculation about a significant shift in their economic strategy.
The Saudis face a unique challenge: despite low production costs, the government’s budget heavily depends on oil revenue. Breaking the Riyal peg to the Dollar becomes a solution, attracting foreign buyers offering alternative currencies for oil.
This move implies a potential detachment of the Saudi Riyal from the US Dollar.
The process is calculated and strategic, involving several stages outlined below.
1. Swap Lines: The Prelude to Ending the Petro-dollar
The initial step involves the official declaration of currency swap lines between Saudi Arabia and China. This move sets the stage for a broader transformation in the financial landscape.
2. Shifting to Yuan for Oil Transactions
The Saudis begin accepting substantial amounts of Chinese Yuan for their oil exports. This signals a departure from the traditional practice of exclusively using the US Dollar in oil transactions, challenging the established norm.
3. Breaking the Peg during Stable Oil Prices
Unlike typical scenarios where currency pegs break during crises, the Riyal is deliberately unlinked from the USD when oil prices are relatively strong. This strategic timing aims to minimize economic turbulence during the transition.
4. USD Substitution and Potential Economic Fallout
The substitution of the Chinese Yuan for the US Dollar becomes an existential threat to the US. As Saudi Arabia diversifies its currency reserves, the US responds by attacking the Saudi Arabian exchange rate, potentially triggering sanctions.
5. Sanctions Risk and Expanded Swaps
In response to the currency shift, the US may impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia. In anticipation, Saudi Arabia expands currency swap agreements, converting sanctioned USD assets into Riyal-based assets.
6. Loans Repaid in Chinese Yuan
China, a key player in this strategic move, provides loans repayable in Chinese Yuan. This reinforces China’s economic influence and helps Saudi Arabia navigate financial challenges post-sanctions.
Historical Context: Learning from Russia’s Experience
Drawing parallels with Russia’s 2014/15 experience, where an oil price collapse led to economic challenges, Saudi Arabia seems to be learning from history. Russia’s survival and subsequent blueprint may guide Saudi Arabia’s strategic decisions.
Russia-China Dynamic: A Blueprint for Yuan Expansion
China’s support for Russia during the ruble crisis, including a yuan-ruble swap line, serves as a blueprint for expanding the Yuan without causing runaway inflation. This strategic collaboration allows China to utilize its US Treasuries and dollar surpluses for loans to emerging market partners.
Saudi Arabia’s Motivation: Balancing Budget Amidst Oil Price Volatility
The Saudis face a unique challenge: despite low production costs, the government’s budget heavily depends on oil revenue. Breaking the Riyal peg to the Dollar becomes a solution, attracting foreign buyers offering alternative currencies for oil.
Saudi Arabia’s Pivot to Russia and China
The geopolitical implications of Saudi Arabia’s alignment with Russia and China become evident. This shift, triggered by a lack of trust in the US, positions Saudi Arabia strategically in a changing global currency and economic landscape.
Preparing for Currency Warfare
Saudi Arabia’s preparation for a potential economic attack on oil prices signifies a proactive approach to safeguard their interests. The kingdom is certainly preparing itself for a future being shaped by strategic currency decisions among new global alliances.
Supporting article: https://tomluongo.me/2023/11/24/what-are-the-saudis-really-preparing-for/
